Flash Destroyer approaching 1 million writes

in Flash Destroyer by Ian | 90 comments

The Flash Destroyer, our new EEPROM tester, is going to reach the first million write cycles in the next few hours (see a live stream here). Can you guess what the final write count will be when the EEPROM dies? We’ll give a couple unpublished Dangerous Prototypes PCBs to the three closest guesses.

You can preorder the Flash Destroyer ‘I like to solder’ kit for $30, including worldwide shipping.

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Comments

  1. Chiva says:

    hmmm, what about… 1234567 wryte cycles?

  2. Tim says:

    ill guess 1.65 million.

  3. laube says:

    ill guess 8.7 million.

  4. Michal says:

    The way it writes bits, i would guess 2 550 000 :)

  5. Julius says:

    1.5 million, I dont think it will pass the 2 million at all…

  6. Josh says:

    I’ll guess 1 million.

  7. bro says:

    my guess 1,570,796 cycles
    (pi/2*1000000 :)

  8. Avenger says:

    My guess is 3,149,462

  9. Daniel says:

    1,270,985

  10. ElPedro says:

    I guess maybe 01189998819991197253 cycles…

    But seriously 1.8 million of cycles…

  11. David says:

    42 times since it is the answer to life, the universe, and everything

    but I’d say 1.74 millionish

  12. jnd says:

    Guys, you guess too low :) I’ll stay with my 10M cycles as I said in the first post

  13. wartos says:

    I second that, the temperature’s just not high enough. My guess: 9 999 999 cycles!

  14. Zdravko says:

    My guess is for 3.5 million cycles :)

  15. Sjaak says:

    1.337.111 +/- 10% ;)

  16. Steve R says:

    5,000,000

  17. Marcelo says:

    8.888.888 is my guess…

  18. DavE says:

    11,500,000

  19. Ken Rinaldo says:

    That is hysterical. Try this with field programmable gate arrays and see if they emerge into some proto-consciousness and discover you are planning and testing for their own demise. 1.78 millioin

  20. Claudio says:

    I guess 1,108,579

  21. gav says:

    will it roll over and keep going or stop at 9999999?

    • Ian says:

      It will keep going. The internal counter is 32bits, so it can count a lot higher than that, but the display will only show the LSB. I’m working on an update now in anticipation of reaching 10M – it will show the MSB and use the decimal points to shows the number of missing 0s.

  22. Moreno says:

    I guess that… is there a bug in the project! Perhaps detecting the error condition. My boards, please :-)

  23. Colin says:

    1,987,654 :)

  24. jnd says:

    While you’ll wait another week to see the first error I suggest reading these appnotes:
    http://ww1.microchip.com/downloads/en/AppNotes/01019A.pdf
    http://ww1.microchip.com/downloads/en/AppNotes/00537.pdf

    • Ian says:

      Great read! There is a table on page 3 of 01018A that shows life at temperature. This is a good quote:

      [quote]
      The higher the temperature, the worse the
      endurance will be. Generally, and approximately, a
      device which fails at 10 million cycles at 25°C will fail at
      2 million cycles at 85°C and 1 million cycles at 125°C.
      The reasons for this are not conclusive (although there
      is much technical literature supporting one theory or
      another), but it is apparent that the failure mode of
      EEPROM cells (electron trapping in the tunnel
      dielectric causing shielding and dielectric breakdown)
      is strongly dependent on temperature.[/quote]

  25. el_remora says:

    I think 9 million cycles

  26. Cucaracha says:

    2 900 000 :)

  27. Evan says:

    I mean 13e6 (13 million)

  28. Moreno says:

    2,113,045

  29. 7 says:

    7,777,777 :D :D :D

  30. Mike says:

    12 121 212 Cycles (12.1 M )

  31. Ben says:

    2,997,890
    *Hope I Win*

  32. maxf says:

    ~15.000.000

  33. leprud says:

    4.567.890 i think

  34. Florin says:

    I think 1.900.009

  35. Alan Goodman says:

    My guess is about 25000000 (25 million)

  36. snomi=] says:

    4, 444, 444

  37. Daniel says:

    9,999,999

  38. mental says:

    3,600,000

  39. elwing says:

    31337801

  40. Atarity says:

    5 900 000

  41. FrankSansC says:

    let’s say 16 000 000 writes.

  42. Rvu says:

    Well if I have to guess I would guess 9 469 043, Now I am curious to see how close (or not) I got.

  43. Kerry says:

    I’d say 20,000,000 read/writes.

    I have read somewhere that tests like this one might show much higher cycle counts than would in normal use condition, as the power is not recycled between read/writes. so I wouldn’t be surprised if the cycles produced in this experiment is many folds higher.

  44. Gav says:

    Ok my Guess – 15,555555

  45. greeegs says:

    4,885,932
    gogo

  46. Trevor White says:

    17321123

  47. Jason says:

    My guess is 11.7M cycles.

  48. Clau says:

    2,500,000

  49. Moreno says:

    3,487,110 :-)

  50. Michael says:

    54,967,295 -> a random radioactive particle will cause an error… even better I think it will be an Alpha particle for some reason.

  51. Max says:

    9,786,421

  52. Ben says:

    5,480,342… (+/- 10,000,000) :)

  53. shadyman says:

    9,876,543

    /Assuming that it’s not set to roll over once it hits 10 mil.

  54. Moreno says:

    3,854,722 :-)

  55. tagno25 says:

    11,527,253

  56. Moreno says:

    4,871,302 ;0))

  57. luther says:

    My guess is 14,555,191

  58. robynhub says:

    My guess is 7,654,321

  59. Moreno says:

    6,627,012 :-)

  60. Moreno says:

    8,847,114

  61. William says:

    My guess is 9,874,312

  62. NicoP says:

    12,856,478

  63. -S- says:

    You could use hexadecimal (or by more symbols, some other system) AFTER it has passed the 9999999 limit? Or use the dots as you said before, but in binary form :) 2^7 zeroes = much :)

  64. Shadyman says:

    9,999,999 if it can’t roll over.
    16,150,000 if it can.

  65. Louis says:

    8,765,432

  66. Avenger says:

    9,215,387

  67. Peter says:

    22,576,257

  68. Rob says:

    11,984,811

  69. wiebel says:

    50,000,000

  70. Simon says:

    23,000,000

  71. blodgar says:

    7,777,777
    “everything dies, but that’s OK”….

  72. Metis says:

    23.456.789 cycles?

  73. Moreno says:

    13,457,882

  74. Ian says:

    The final count is 11.49million cycles. The destruction started at 8:11 UTC on May 25, and it took almost exactly 13days to reach the first error. The final count and closest guesses are here:
    http://dangerousprototypes.com/2010/06/07/flash-destroyer-dead-at-11-49-million/

    Thanks for participating.

  75. Gav says:

    Hey Ian , please run it again ,this is more fun than the eurolotto !

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